Electric Load Forecasting: Advanced Topics and Case Studies
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Electric Load Forecasting: Advanced Topics and Case Studies
BELFADV : BELFADV
This hands-on workshop is open to those who attended the Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best Practices course. This course includes lecture and hands-on lab exercises that explore advanced topics in electric load forecasting.
Learn How To
  • Perform time series cross validation.
  • Select weather stations.
  • Detect outliers and cleanse data.
  • Use comprehensive temperature information.
  • Combine forecasts.
  • Who Should Attend
    Load/price forecasters, energy traders, quantitative/business analysts in the utility industry, power system planners, power system operators, load research analysts, and rate design analysts
    Prerequisites
    Before attending this course, you must attend the Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best Practices course.
    SAS Products Covered
    SAS/ETS;SAS/STAT
    Course Outline
    Out of Sample Tests
  • Error analysis.
  • Cross validation.
  • Sliding simulation.
  • Weather Station Selection
  • Two fundamental questions.
  • A common method.
  • Unconstrained weather station selection.
  • Seven-step implementation.
  • Outlier Detection and Data Cleansing
  • Definitions of outlier.
  • Three examples.
  • Hidden outlier.
  • A modeling approach to outlier detection and data cleansing.
  • More about Recency Effect
  • How many lagged temperatures can we afford?
  • "Optimal" combination of lagged and average temperatures.
  • Recency effect in hierarchical load forecasting.
  • Search algorithms for recency effect modeling.
  • Combining Forecasts
  • Motivation.
  • Forecast combination methods.
  • Practical considerations.
  • Case Studies (computer lab session)
  • Cross validation.
  • Weather station selection.
  • Outlier detection and data cleansing.
  • Recency effect modeling.
  • Forecast combination.
  • Emerging Topics (optional)
  • Grouping and clustering methods.
  • ARIMA models for electric load forecasting.
  • Probabilistic electric load forecasting.
  • Other emerging topics.
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